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Turtle Trading

Invented by a market guru called Richard Dennis, Turtle Trading is a mechanical system that has, in the past, been enormously profitable, and is thought by the general public to be an almost infallible trading system. As a style, it requires a particular mindset, as you will suffer a great number of small losses, and only a few large wins. This can be so disheartening that traders following this strategy either give up, or cherry pick, missing the irregular huge winners that offset the numerous small losers. Very deep pockets and inordinate patience are required for this strategy to work for you. It is definitely no use for day trading timescales.


Trading of any kind (and that includes day trading) is simply another business. A business with costs, profit margins, opportunities and pitfalls. And like any other business, it requires training, experience and effort to make money at it. The upside is that by sticking to a sensible system like the Camarilla {b} Equation, you will almost overnight achieve the equivalent of years of day trading experience, will have to do a lot less work, and will be exposed to far less danger than would otherwise be the case.


Day Trading Market Makers

Why Markets behave as they do

Research conducted by SureFireThing has highlighted some very interesting facts about the mechanics of market movement. Building on the concepts of 'Market Profile', and 'Reversion to the Mean Theory', SureFireThing have created the Camarilla {b} Equation, which, for the first time, describes market action with enough accuracy to make day trading simple, and perhaps even enjoyable.

Market Profile

The original creators of the Market Profile theory based their research on the S+P 500 index, specifically on day trading future. They devolved a number of very interesting conclusions, including the idea of the 'Value Area'. This is a contiguous range of prices that encapsulates about 70% of yesterday's price action. They also came to the conclusion that market participants fell into one of 2 timeframes, i.e. everyone trading was either interested only in today (pit traders, day traders) or 'longer' (swing traders, buy and hold traders etc). For some reason the concept of the 'Value Area' won all the attention, and a useful tool it is too.However, the real prize was the concept of timeframes, and it is this phenomenon that the Camarilla {b} Equation exploits with such ruthless efficiency.

Put simply, the Camarilla {b} Equation identifies those points where control passes from the day trader community to those traders with longer timeframes (and hence stronger holding powers). If you watch a market for any length of time, you will notice that it generally 'rotates' up and down between two levels. You do NOT want to be trading within these two 'floor trader' levels, no matter how tempting it looks, as the rest of the day trading participants will likely have faster reflexes than you, better luck, or the actual edge in the pit, and will delight in taking your money off you, as often as you care to step up to the ring. HOWEVER, if it manages to break either of these levels, it generally then zooms off as pent up demand explodes and cause rapid changes in price. If you know where these levels are, and how deep a penetration into them is significant, you are in a good position to place a day trade that can become seriously profitable in only a few minutes. And remember, the less time you hold a position, the less risk you expose your money to.

The other side of the Camarilla {b} Equation is the fact that market movements are not infinite; they do exhaust themselves, and they tend to die off according to a statistical theory reduced to an equation by SureFireThing. Combining these 2 elements gives the day trader the Camarilla {b} Equation, a veritable 'roadmap' to tomorrow's price action. This 'roadmap' includes the information

  • When to stay out of the action
  • When to jump in
  • Where to put your stop loss
  • Where to take your profits
  • The likely range for the entire day